We want to cling to these incredibly outdated and simplistic measures of ability.
— Malcolm Gladwell
Hiring is difficult and we tend to fall back on antiquated tools that give us a number (something, anything) to help us evaluate potential employees. This creates what Malcolm Gladwell calls “mismatch problems” — when the criteria for evaluating job candidates is out of step with the reality of the job demands.
Of course, we never think our criteria is out of step.
The mismatch problem shows itself all over the sports world. Although the study below was released in 2008, Gladwell has long illustrated the point that sports combines (events professional sports leagues hold for scouts to evaluate potential draftees based on a battery of ‘tests’) don’t work.
Gladwell’s results echo what Michael Lewis talks about in Moneyball: Combines are a poor predictor of determining ultimate success. Mismatch problems transcend the sports world.
Teachers are another example. While we tend to evaluate teachers based on high test scores, number of degrees and other credentials, that makes little difference in how well people actually teach.
Some companies, like Google, are trying to attack this problem. Google tried to find correlations between ‘great’ existing employees. When they find correlations, say like most people who score 9/10 on performance reviews, own a dog, they try to work that into their hiring. By constantly evaluating the actual results of their hiring, rethinking how they hire, and removing questions and evaluations that show no bearing on actual performance they are taking steps to try to eliminate the mismatch problem.
Google also knows hiring lacks certainty; they are just trying to continuously improve and refine the process. Interestingly, very few workforces are so evidence-based. Rather the argument becomes hiring works because it has always ‘worked’…
So why do mismatch problems exist?
Because we desire certainty. We want to impose certainty on something that is not, by nature, certain. The increase in complexity doesn’t help either.
“The craving for that physics-style precision does nothing but get you in terrible trouble.”
— Charlie Munger
See the video here.
Interested in learning more? Check out measurements that mislead.
Malcolm Gladwell is the New York Times bestselling author of Blink:The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Outliers:The Story of Success, and What the Dog Saw: And Other Adventures.