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The Scandal of Prediction

For anyone who has been compelled to give a long-term vision or read a marketing forecast for the next decade, Mr. Taleb’s chapter excoriating “The Scandal of Prediction” will ring painfully true.” What is surprising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors,” observes Mr. Taleb, “but our absence of awareness of it.” We tend to fail — miserably — at predicting the future, but such failure is little noted nor long remembered. It seems to be of remarkably little professional consequence.

Source: The WSJ review of The Black Swan.

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