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The Key To A Good Forecast

Election forecasting superhero Nate Silver explains what it takes to make a good forecast in The Signal and the Noise

The key to making a good forecast … is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. Rather, it's having a good process for weighing the information appropriately. … collect as much information as possible, but then be as rigorous and disciplined as possible when analyzing it.

Silver makes a great point a few pages after this quote writing: “… when we have trouble categorizing something, we'll often overlook it or misjudge it.”