From The Signal And The Noise:
The meteorologists at the Weather Channel will fudge a little but under certain conditions. Historically, for instance, when they say there is a 20 percent change of rain, it has only rained about 5 percent of the time. In fact, this is deliberate and is something the Weather Channel is willing to admit to. It has to do with their economic incentives.
People notice one type of mistake — the failure to predict rain — more than another kind, false alarms. If it rains when it isn’t supposed to, they curse the weatherman for ruining their picnic, whereas an unexpectedly sunny day is taken as a serendipitous bonus.
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