Search Results for: Tetlock

Philip Tetlock: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters

December 21, 2015

The Knowledge Project interview with Philip Tetlock deconstructs our ability to make accurate predictions into specific components. He learned through his work on The Good Judgment Project. In Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Tetlock and Dan Gardner (his co-author), set out to distill the ten key themes that have been “experimentally demonstrated to […]

Philip Tetlock on The Art and Science of Prediction

December 09, 2015

This is the sixth episode of The Knowledge Project, a podcast aimed at acquiring wisdom through interviews with fascinating people to gain insights into how they think, live, and connect ideas. *** On this episode, I’m happy to have Philip Tetlock, professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He’s the co-leader of The Good Judgement Project, […]

Confirmation Bias: Why You Should Seek Out Disconfirming Evidence

May 24, 2017

“What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact.” — Warren Buffett *** The Basics Confirmation bias is our tendency to cherry pick information which confirms pre-existing beliefs or ideas. This is also known as myside bias or confirmatory bias. Two people with opposing […]

The Best Books of 2016 According to You

December 11, 2016

On Twitter in late November we asked Farnam Street readers What Was The Best Book You Read in 2016? Turns out you are all a well read bunch: almost 90 books came up in the discussion and many of them brand new to us. Below are the most frequently mentioned books on the list, followed by a few dozen […]

Gradually Getting Closer to the Truth

September 15, 2016

You can use a big idea without a physics-like need for exact precision. The key to remember is moving closer to reality by updating. Consider this excerpt from Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner in Superforecasting The superforecasters are a numerate bunch: many know about Bayes’ theorem and could deploy it if they felt it was […]

Julia Galef on Becoming More Rational, Changing Minds, and Filtering Information

February 22, 2016

On this episode of The Knowledge Project, I talk rationality, changing minds (our own and others), filtering information, the role of intuition, and a lot more with Julia Galef. Galef is the President and co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality, a non-profit organization based in Berkeley, California, devoted to developing, testing and training people in […]